Roman Imperium Cup IX · BO1
result vs prediction
PURE#126 in the world · win 13:6series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 13:6
Falcons Force#152 in the world · loss 6:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MiragePURE ban
36%50%
PURE · 7 mapsedge Falcons Force +14%Falcons Force · 12 maps
Infernopossible decider
63%63%
PURE · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Falcons Force · 12 maps
NukeFalcons Force ban
56%31%
PURE · 5 mapsedge PURE +25%Falcons Force · 9 maps
CachePURE ban
57%71%
PURE · 3 mapsedge Falcons Force +14%Falcons Force · 10 maps
AncientFalcons Force ban
63%57%
PURE · 4 mapsedge PURE +6%Falcons Force · 3 maps
AnubisPURE ban
50%55%
PURE · 0 mapsedge Falcons Force +5%Falcons Force · 7 maps
Dust2Falcons Force ban
57%33%
PURE · 3 mapsedge PURE +24%Falcons Force · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPURE remove Anubis
2. BanFalcons Force remove Dust2
3. BanPURE remove Mirage
4. BanFalcons Force remove Nuke
5. BanPURE remove Cache
6. BanFalcons Force remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (63% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:6
PURE 50%Falcons Force 50%
The model gave 50% on PURE — the map was taken by PURE.
Model check result
Model favoritePURE · 63%
Series resultPURE 13:6
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1