Roman Imperium Cup IX · BO1
result vs prediction
SINQU#217 in the world · win 13:7series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 13:7
Orion Wanderersloss 7:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeOrion Wanderers ban
50%40%
SINQU · 8 mapsedge SINQU +10%Orion Wanderers · 1 map
CacheOrion Wanderers ban
27%40%
SINQU · 7 mapsedge Orion Wanderers +13%Orion Wanderers · 1 map
AncientSINQU ban
22%33%
SINQU · 5 mapsedge Orion Wanderers +11%Orion Wanderers · 2 maps
Anubispossible decider
33%40%
SINQU · 2 mapsedge Orion Wanderers +7%Orion Wanderers · 1 map
Dust2SINQU ban
40%33%
SINQU · 1 mapedge SINQU +7%Orion Wanderers · 2 maps
InfernoSINQU ban
50%50%
SINQU · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Orion Wanderers · 0 maps
DefaultOrion Wanderers ban
60%50%
SINQU · 1 mapedge SINQU +10%Orion Wanderers · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSINQU remove Inferno
2. BanOrion Wanderers remove Nuke
3. BanSINQU remove Ancient
4. BanOrion Wanderers remove Cache
5. BanSINQU remove Dust2
6. BanOrion Wanderers remove Default
DeciderAnubis (33% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:7
SINQU 43%Orion Wanderers 57%
The model gave 57% on Orion Wanderers — the map was taken by SINQU.
Model check result
Model favoriteSINQU · 53%
Series resultSINQU 13:7
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1