Roman Imperium Cup IX · BO1
result vs prediction
RBLS#93 in the world · loss 8:13series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 8:13
Lazer Cats#117 in the world · win 13:8The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientRBLS ban
50%62%
RBLS · 4 mapsedge Lazer Cats +12%Lazer Cats · 9 maps
AnubisRBLS ban
50%78%
RBLS · 4 mapsedge Lazer Cats +28%Lazer Cats · 5 maps
Dust2Lazer Cats ban
50%29%
RBLS · 4 mapsedge RBLS +21%Lazer Cats · 3 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%56%
RBLS · 2 mapsedge Lazer Cats +6%Lazer Cats · 5 maps
NukeLazer Cats ban
57%43%
RBLS · 3 mapsedge RBLS +14%Lazer Cats · 3 maps
MirageRBLS ban
50%50%
RBLS · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Lazer Cats · 4 maps
CacheLazer Cats ban
57%50%
RBLS · 3 mapsedge RBLS +7%Lazer Cats · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRBLS remove Mirage
2. BanLazer Cats remove Cache
3. BanRBLS remove Ancient
4. BanLazer Cats remove Nuke
5. BanRBLS remove Anubis
6. BanLazer Cats remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (50% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed8:13
RBLS 71%Lazer Cats 29%
The model gave 71% on RBLS — the map was taken by Lazer Cats.
Model check result
Model favoriteRBLS · 55%
Series resultLazer Cats 8:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1