Roman Imperium Cup IX · BO1
result vs prediction
RBLS#93 in the world · win 13:11series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 13:11
NAVI Junior#127 in the world · loss 11:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
44%39%
RBLS · 5 mapsedge RBLS +5%NAVI Junior · 19 maps
AnubisRBLS ban
50%60%
RBLS · 4 mapsedge NAVI Junior +10%NAVI Junior · 16 maps
MirageRBLS ban
50%67%
RBLS · 0 mapsedge NAVI Junior +17%NAVI Junior · 20 maps
AncientRBLS ban
50%29%
RBLS · 4 mapsedge RBLS +21%NAVI Junior · 10 maps
NukeNAVI Junior ban
57%38%
RBLS · 3 mapsedge RBLS +19%NAVI Junior · 9 maps
CacheNAVI Junior ban
57%33%
RBLS · 3 mapsedge RBLS +24%NAVI Junior · 5 maps
InfernoNAVI Junior ban
50%33%
RBLS · 2 mapsedge RBLS +17%NAVI Junior · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRBLS remove Mirage
2. BanNAVI Junior remove Cache
3. BanRBLS remove Anubis
4. BanNAVI Junior remove Inferno
5. BanRBLS remove Ancient
6. BanNAVI Junior remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (44% / 39%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
RBLS 71%NAVI Junior 29%
The model gave 71% on RBLS — the map was taken by RBLS.
Model check result
Model favoriteRBLS · 57%
Series resultRBLS 13:11
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1