Roman Imperium Cup IX · BO1
result vs prediction
Sangal#48 in the world · win 13:6series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 13:6
RBLS#93 in the world · loss 6:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheRBLS ban
64%57%
Sangal · 10 mapsedge Sangal +7%RBLS · 3 maps
Dust2Sangal ban
36%44%
Sangal · 7 mapsedge RBLS +8%RBLS · 5 maps
Nukepossible decider
75%57%
Sangal · 8 mapsedge Sangal +18%RBLS · 3 maps
AncientSangal ban
56%56%
Sangal · 5 mapsnearly even +0%RBLS · 5 maps
AnubisRBLS ban
70%50%
Sangal · 6 mapsedge Sangal +20%RBLS · 4 maps
MirageRBLS ban
50%50%
Sangal · 8 mapsnearly even +0%RBLS · 0 maps
InfernoSangal ban
50%50%
Sangal · 0 mapsnearly even +0%RBLS · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSangal remove Inferno
2. BanRBLS remove Mirage
3. BanSangal remove Dust2
4. BanRBLS remove Cache
5. BanSangal remove Ancient
6. BanRBLS remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (75% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:6
Sangal 69%RBLS 31%
The model gave 69% on Sangal — the map was taken by Sangal.
Model check result
Model favoriteSangal · 65%
Series resultSangal 13:6
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1