Roman Imperium Cup IX · BO1
result vs prediction
Lazer Cats#117 in the world · loss 14:16series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 14:16
NAVI Junior#127 in the world · win 16:14The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
38%42%
Lazer Cats · 4 mapsnearly even -4%NAVI Junior · 20 maps
MirageLazer Cats ban
50%67%
Lazer Cats · 4 mapsedge NAVI Junior +17%NAVI Junior · 20 maps
AnubisNAVI Junior ban
70%60%
Lazer Cats · 6 mapsedge Lazer Cats +10%NAVI Junior · 16 maps
AncientNAVI Junior ban
57%27%
Lazer Cats · 10 mapsedge Lazer Cats +30%NAVI Junior · 11 maps
NukeLazer Cats ban
43%38%
Lazer Cats · 3 mapsedge Lazer Cats +5%NAVI Junior · 9 maps
InfernoNAVI Junior ban
56%33%
Lazer Cats · 5 mapsedge Lazer Cats +23%NAVI Junior · 2 maps
CacheLazer Cats ban
50%33%
Lazer Cats · 0 mapsedge Lazer Cats +17%NAVI Junior · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLazer Cats remove Cache
2. BanNAVI Junior remove Inferno
3. BanLazer Cats remove Nuke
4. BanNAVI Junior remove Ancient
5. BanLazer Cats remove Mirage
6. BanNAVI Junior remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (38% / 42%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct14:16
Lazer Cats 33%NAVI Junior 67%
The model gave 67% on NAVI Junior — the map was taken by NAVI Junior.
Model check result
Model favoriteLazer Cats · 52%
Series resultNAVI Junior 14:16
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1