Roman Imperium Cup IX · BO3
result vs prediction
EAC#76 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Sangal#48 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageEAC pick
52%50%
EAC · 27 mapsnearly even +2%Sangal · 8 maps
NukeSangal pick
53%75%
EAC · 13 mapsedge Sangal +22%Sangal · 12 maps
AnubisEAC ban
43%64%
EAC · 17 mapsedge Sangal +21%Sangal · 7 maps
AncientSangal ban
59%56%
EAC · 18 mapsnearly even +3%Sangal · 5 maps
Cachepossible decider
63%60%
EAC · 12 mapsnearly even +3%Sangal · 11 maps
InfernoSangal ban
31%50%
EAC · 12 mapsedge Sangal +19%Sangal · 0 maps
Dust2EAC ban
50%46%
EAC · 0 mapsnearly even +4%Sangal · 9 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEAC remove Dust2
2. BanSangal remove Inferno
3. PickEAC take Mirage
4. PickSangal take Nuke
5. BanSangal remove Ancient
6. BanEAC remove Anubis
DeciderCache (63% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct7:13
EAC 25%Sangal 75%
The model gave 75% on Sangal — the map was taken by Sangal.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
EAC 55%Sangal 45%
The model gave 55% on EAC — the map was taken by Sangal.
Model check result
Model favoriteSangal · 61%
Series resultSangal 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2