Roman Imperium Cup IX · BO3
result vs prediction
Sangal#48 in the world · win 2:1series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PURE#126 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeSangal pick
76%56%
Sangal · 13 mapsedge Sangal +20%PURE · 5 maps
MiragePURE ban
54%36%
Sangal · 9 mapsedge Sangal +18%PURE · 7 maps
Cachepossible decider
63%57%
Sangal · 12 mapsedge Sangal +6%PURE · 3 maps
Dust2Sangal ban
46%57%
Sangal · 9 mapsedge PURE +11%PURE · 3 maps
AncientPURE pick
50%56%
Sangal · 6 mapsedge PURE +6%PURE · 5 maps
AnubisPURE ban
67%67%
Sangal · 8 mapsnearly even +0%PURE · 2 maps
InfernoSangal ban
50%78%
Sangal · 0 mapsedge PURE +28%PURE · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSangal remove Inferno
2. BanPURE remove Anubis
3. PickSangal take Nuke
4. PickPURE take Ancient
5. BanPURE remove Mirage
6. BanSangal remove Dust2
DeciderCache (63% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct2:13
Sangal 42%PURE 58%
The model gave 58% on PURE — the map was taken by PURE.
Nukeprediction correct13:3
Sangal 75%PURE 25%
The model gave 75% on Sangal — the map was taken by Sangal.
Cacheprediction correct13:9
Sangal 56%PURE 44%
The model gave 56% on Sangal — the map was taken by Sangal.
Model check result
Model favoriteSangal · 78%
Series resultSangal 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3