Stake Ranked Episode 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliance#22 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Sharks#51 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeSharks pick
44%60%
Alliance · 5 mapsedge Sharks +16%Sharks · 6 maps
AncientAlliance ban
43%63%
Alliance · 3 mapsedge Sharks +20%Sharks · 4 maps
InfernoAlliance pick
67%67%
Alliance · 5 mapsnearly even +0%Sharks · 2 maps
Dust2Sharks ban
50%50%
Alliance · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Sharks · 0 maps
Anubispossible decider
43%50%
Alliance · 3 mapsedge Sharks +7%Sharks · 0 maps
OverpassSharks ban
40%33%
Alliance · 1 mapedge Alliance +7%Sharks · 2 maps
MirageAlliance ban
50%40%
Alliance · 0 mapsedge Alliance +10%Sharks · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAlliance remove Mirage
2. BanSharks remove Dust2
3. PickAlliance take Inferno
4. PickSharks take Nuke
5. BanSharks remove Overpass
6. BanAlliance remove Ancient
DeciderAnubis (43% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct11:13
Alliance 32%Sharks 68%
The model gave 68% on Sharks — the map was taken by Sharks.
Anubisprediction correct13:16
Alliance 46%Sharks 54%
The model gave 54% on Sharks — the map was taken by Sharks.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 63%
Series resultSharks 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2