1xBet FRAG Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
PCIFIC#135 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Rune Eaters#114 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MiragePCIFIC ban
50%47%
PCIFIC · 0 mapsnearly even +3%Rune Eaters · 11 maps
AncientPCIFIC ban
50%43%
PCIFIC · 0 mapsedge PCIFIC +7%Rune Eaters · 10 maps
Dust2Rune Eaters pick
50%64%
PCIFIC · 2 mapsedge Rune Eaters +14%Rune Eaters · 7 maps
InfernoRune Eaters ban
60%50%
PCIFIC · 1 mapedge PCIFIC +10%Rune Eaters · 4 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%43%
PCIFIC · 0 mapsedge PCIFIC +7%Rune Eaters · 3 maps
NukePCIFIC pick
50%33%
PCIFIC · 0 mapsedge PCIFIC +17%Rune Eaters · 2 maps
OverpassRune Eaters ban
50%33%
PCIFIC · 0 mapsedge PCIFIC +17%Rune Eaters · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPCIFIC remove Ancient
2. BanRune Eaters remove Overpass
3. PickPCIFIC take Nuke
4. PickRune Eaters take Dust2
5. BanRune Eaters remove Inferno
6. BanPCIFIC remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (50% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed5:13
PCIFIC 63%Rune Eaters 37%
The model gave 63% on PCIFIC — the map was taken by Rune Eaters.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
PCIFIC 50%Rune Eaters 50%
The model gave 50% on PCIFIC — the map was taken by PCIFIC.
Dust2prediction correct7:13
PCIFIC 36%Rune Eaters 64%
The model gave 64% on Rune Eaters — the map was taken by Rune Eaters.
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 62%
Series resultRune Eaters 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3