1xBet FRAG Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
DEPO#120 in the world · win 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Dark Moon pick
50%38%
DEPO · 2 mapsedge DEPO +12%Dark Moon · 4 maps
AncientDark Moon ban
67%29%
DEPO · 2 mapsedge DEPO +38%Dark Moon · 3 maps
MirageDEPO ban
50%40%
DEPO · 2 mapsedge DEPO +10%Dark Moon · 1 map
OverpassDEPO pick
67%60%
DEPO · 2 mapsedge DEPO +7%Dark Moon · 1 map
AnubisDark Moon ban
60%50%
DEPO · 1 mapedge DEPO +10%Dark Moon · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDEPO remove Mirage
2. BanDark Moon remove Ancient
3. PickDEPO take Overpass
4. PickDark Moon take Dust2
5. BanDark Moon remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
DEPO 82%Dark Moon 18%
The model gave 82% on DEPO — the map was taken by DEPO.
Overpassprediction correct16:13
DEPO 60%Dark Moon 40%
The model gave 60% on DEPO — the map was taken by DEPO.
Model check result
Model favoriteDEPO · 69%
Series resultDEPO 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2