Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
OG#203 in the world · win 2:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
EAC#76 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeEAC ban
60%40%
OG · 1 mapedge OG +20%EAC · 6 maps
OverpassEAC pick
60%60%
OG · 1 mapnearly even +0%EAC · 6 maps
AncientOG ban
50%38%
OG · 0 mapsedge OG +12%EAC · 4 maps
MirageOG pick
50%33%
OG · 0 mapsedge OG +17%EAC · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOG remove Ancient
2. BanEAC remove Nuke
3. PickOG take Mirage
4. PickEAC take Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction missed13:6
OG 47%EAC 53%
The model gave 53% on EAC — the map was taken by OG.
Nukeprediction missed6:13
OG 72%EAC 28%
The model gave 72% on OG — the map was taken by EAC.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
OG 50%EAC 50%
The model gave 50% on OG — the map was taken by OG.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 52%
Series resultOG 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3