NODWIN Clutch Series 9 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
aAa#132 in the world · win 2:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2aAa pick
31%65%
aAa · 9 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +34%ex-Zero Tenacity · 13 maps
Nukeex-Zero Tenacity pick
25%60%
aAa · 4 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +35%ex-Zero Tenacity · 11 maps
Infernopossible decider
29%45%
aAa · 3 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +16%ex-Zero Tenacity · 7 maps
Anubisex-Zero Tenacity ban
60%36%
aAa · 1 mapedge aAa +24%ex-Zero Tenacity · 7 maps
MirageaAa ban
50%36%
aAa · 0 mapsedge aAa +14%ex-Zero Tenacity · 7 maps
Ancientex-Zero Tenacity ban
20%50%
aAa · 6 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +30%ex-Zero Tenacity · 0 maps
OverpassaAa ban
33%29%
aAa · 2 mapsnearly even +4%ex-Zero Tenacity · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanaAa remove Mirage
2. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Ancient
3. PickaAa take Dust2
4. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Nuke
5. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Anubis
6. BanaAa remove Overpass
DeciderInferno (29% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:11
aAa 16%ex-Zero Tenacity 84%
The model gave 84% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by aAa.
Dust2prediction correct4:13
aAa 21%ex-Zero Tenacity 79%
The model gave 79% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Infernoprediction missed13:10
aAa 32%ex-Zero Tenacity 68%
The model gave 68% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by aAa.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-Zero Tenacity · 56%
Series resultaAa 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3