1xBet FRAG Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eaters#114 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HOTU#41 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
46%50%
Rune Eaters · 9 mapsnearly even -4%HOTU · 2 maps
MirageHOTU ban
47%50%
Rune Eaters · 11 mapsnearly even -3%HOTU · 0 maps
Dust2Rune Eaters pick
60%63%
Rune Eaters · 6 mapsnearly even -3%HOTU · 4 maps
InfernoHOTU ban
50%50%
Rune Eaters · 4 mapsnearly even +0%HOTU · 0 maps
NukeRune Eaters ban
40%57%
Rune Eaters · 1 mapedge HOTU +17%HOTU · 3 maps
DefaultHOTU pick
50%50%
Rune Eaters · 2 mapsnearly even +0%HOTU · 0 maps
OverpassRune Eaters ban
33%50%
Rune Eaters · 2 mapsedge HOTU +17%HOTU · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRune Eaters remove Overpass
2. BanHOTU remove Inferno
3. PickRune Eaters take Dust2
4. PickHOTU take Default
5. BanHOTU remove Mirage
6. BanRune Eaters remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (46% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:4
Rune Eaters 50%HOTU 50%
The model gave 50% on Rune Eaters — the map was taken by Rune Eaters.
Nukeprediction correct8:13
Rune Eaters 31%HOTU 69%
The model gave 69% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Ancientprediction correct8:13
Rune Eaters 46%HOTU 54%
The model gave 54% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 77%
Series resultHOTU 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3