1xBet FRAG Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
Omega#148 in the world · win 2:1series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:1
DEPO#120 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientOmega pick
70%67%
Omega · 6 mapsnearly even +3%DEPO · 2 maps
Dust2DEPO ban
73%60%
Omega · 7 mapsedge Omega +13%DEPO · 1 map
MirageOmega ban
50%60%
Omega · 4 mapsedge DEPO +10%DEPO · 1 map
NukeDEPO ban
44%50%
Omega · 5 mapsedge DEPO +6%DEPO · 0 maps
OverpassDEPO pick
29%60%
Omega · 3 mapsedge DEPO +31%DEPO · 1 map
AnubisOmega ban
50%60%
Omega · 0 mapsedge DEPO +10%DEPO · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOmega remove Anubis
2. BanDEPO remove Dust2
3. PickOmega take Ancient
4. PickDEPO take Overpass
5. BanDEPO remove Nuke
6. BanOmega remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:4
Omega 67%DEPO 33%
The model gave 67% on Omega — the map was taken by Omega.
Overpassprediction correct11:13
Omega 19%DEPO 81%
The model gave 81% on DEPO — the map was taken by DEPO.
Mirageprediction missed13:2
Omega 40%DEPO 60%
The model gave 60% on DEPO — the map was taken by Omega.
Model check result
Model favoriteDEPO · 70%
Series resultOmega 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3