1xBet FRAG Season 17 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PCIFIC#135 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisPCIFIC ban
50%40%
DNK · 0 mapsedge DNK +10%PCIFIC · 1 map
Dust2PCIFIC pick
50%40%
DNK · 0 mapsedge DNK +10%PCIFIC · 1 map
InfernoDNK pick
40%50%
DNK · 1 mapedge PCIFIC +10%PCIFIC · 0 maps
MirageDNK ban
40%50%
DNK · 1 mapedge PCIFIC +10%PCIFIC · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDNK remove Mirage
2. BanPCIFIC remove Anubis
3. PickDNK take Inferno
4. PickPCIFIC take Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct7:13
DNK 43%PCIFIC 57%
The model gave 57% on PCIFIC — the map was taken by PCIFIC.
Dust2prediction missed9:13
DNK 57%PCIFIC 43%
The model gave 57% on DNK — the map was taken by PCIFIC.
Model check result
Model favoriteDNK · 57%
Series resultPCIFIC 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2