European Pro League Series 7 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Misa#115 in the world · win 2:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Lilmix#204 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
44%40%
Misa · 5 mapsnearly even +4%Lilmix · 11 maps
Dust2Misa pick
67%29%
Misa · 5 mapsedge Misa +38%Lilmix · 10 maps
AncientMisa ban
50%38%
Misa · 0 mapsedge Misa +12%Lilmix · 9 maps
OverpassMisa ban
33%55%
Misa · 2 mapsedge Lilmix +22%Lilmix · 7 maps
InfernoLilmix pick
57%78%
Misa · 3 mapsedge Lilmix +21%Lilmix · 5 maps
AnubisLilmix ban
38%50%
Misa · 4 mapsedge Lilmix +12%Lilmix · 0 maps
NukeLilmix ban
50%50%
Misa · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Lilmix · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMisa remove Ancient
2. BanLilmix remove Nuke
3. PickMisa take Dust2
4. PickLilmix take Inferno
5. BanLilmix remove Anubis
6. BanMisa remove Overpass
DeciderMirage (44% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct9:13
Misa 25%Lilmix 75%
The model gave 75% on Lilmix — the map was taken by Lilmix.
Dust2prediction correct13:5
Misa 85%Lilmix 15%
The model gave 85% on Misa — the map was taken by Misa.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
Misa 55%Lilmix 45%
The model gave 55% on Misa — the map was taken by Misa.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilmix · 53%
Series resultMisa 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3