BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga#22 in the world · win 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-RUBY pick
56%58%
Nemiga · 5 mapsnearly even -2%ex-RUBY · 15 maps
Ancientex-RUBY ban
67%43%
Nemiga · 8 mapsedge Nemiga +24%ex-RUBY · 10 maps
MirageNemiga ban
55%46%
Nemiga · 7 mapsedge Nemiga +9%ex-RUBY · 9 maps
NukeNemiga ban
56%87%
Nemiga · 5 mapsedge ex-RUBY +31%ex-RUBY · 11 maps
OverpassNemiga pick
75%55%
Nemiga · 8 mapsedge Nemiga +20%ex-RUBY · 7 maps
Anubisex-RUBY ban
56%60%
Nemiga · 5 mapsnearly even -4%ex-RUBY · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemiga remove Nuke
2. Banex-RUBY remove Anubis
3. PickNemiga take Overpass
4. Pickex-RUBY take Dust2
5. Banex-RUBY remove Ancient
6. BanNemiga remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction correct16:12
Nemiga 74%ex-RUBY 26%
The model gave 74% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Mirageprediction correct13:2
Nemiga 55%ex-RUBY 45%
The model gave 55% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga · 70%
Series resultNemiga 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2