ESL Challenger League Season 51 South America Finals · BO5
result vs prediction
ShindeN#77 in the world · win 3:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Imperial#51 in the world · loss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Imperial pick
50%62%
ShindeN · 4 mapsedge Imperial +12%Imperial · 9 maps
InfernoImperial pick
50%70%
ShindeN · 2 mapsedge Imperial +20%Imperial · 6 maps
MirageShindeN pick
57%50%
ShindeN · 3 mapsedge ShindeN +7%Imperial · 4 maps
NukeShindeN pick
44%40%
ShindeN · 5 mapsnearly even +4%Imperial · 1 map
AnubisShindeN ban
50%56%
ShindeN · 0 mapsedge Imperial +6%Imperial · 5 maps
Overpasspossible decider
60%60%
ShindeN · 1 mapnearly even +0%Imperial · 1 map
AncientImperial ban
60%50%
ShindeN · 1 mapedge ShindeN +10%Imperial · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanShindeN remove Anubis
2. BanImperial remove Ancient
3. PickShindeN take Nuke
4. PickImperial take Dust2
5. PickShindeN take Mirage
6. PickImperial take Inferno
DeciderOverpass (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed16:13
ShindeN 33%Imperial 67%
The model gave 67% on Imperial — the map was taken by ShindeN.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
ShindeN 54%Imperial 46%
The model gave 54% on ShindeN — the map was taken by ShindeN.
Nukeprediction missed11:13
ShindeN 58%Imperial 42%
The model gave 58% on ShindeN — the map was taken by Imperial.
Overpassprediction missed13:11
ShindeN 47%Imperial 53%
The model gave 53% on Imperial — the map was taken by ShindeN.
Model check result
Model favoriteShindeN · 51%
Series resultShindeN 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 4