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ESL Challenger League Season 51 Europe Finals · BO5
result vs prediction
Nemesis#43 in the world · loss 2:3
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:3
TDK#86 in the world · win 3:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2TDK pick
50%73%
Nemesis · 2 mapsedge TDK +23%TDK · 7 maps
AncientNemesis pick
71%44%
Nemesis · 3 mapsedge Nemesis +27%TDK · 5 maps
InfernoNemesis pick
63%33%
Nemesis · 4 mapsedge Nemesis +30%TDK · 2 maps
Miragepossible decider
40%44%
Nemesis · 1 mapnearly even -4%TDK · 5 maps
OverpassTDK pick
50%70%
Nemesis · 0 mapsedge TDK +20%TDK · 6 maps
NukeTDK ban
57%50%
Nemesis · 3 mapsedge Nemesis +7%TDK · 0 maps
AnubisNemesis ban
50%50%
Nemesis · 0 mapsnearly even +0%TDK · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Anubis
2. BanTDK remove Nuke
3. PickNemesis take Ancient
4. PickTDK take Overpass
5. PickNemesis take Inferno
6. PickTDK take Dust2
DeciderMirage (40% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed7:13
Nemesis 78%TDK 22%
The model gave 78% on Nemesis — the map was taken by TDK.
Dust2prediction missed13:4
Nemesis 25%TDK 75%
The model gave 75% on TDK — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Nukeprediction correct13:11
Nemesis 60%TDK 40%
The model gave 60% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Overpassprediction correct9:13
Nemesis 28%TDK 72%
The model gave 72% on TDK — the map was taken by TDK.
Mirageprediction correct9:13
Nemesis 45%TDK 55%
The model gave 55% on TDK — the map was taken by TDK.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemesis · 55%
Series resultTDK 2:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 5