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Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Johnny Speeds#73 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Oramond#119 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageOramond pick
40%64%
Johnny Speeds · 6 mapsedge Oramond +24%Oramond · 7 maps
Dust2Johnny Speeds ban
50%40%
Johnny Speeds · 6 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +10%Oramond · 6 maps
AnubisJohnny Speeds ban
29%55%
Johnny Speeds · 3 mapsedge Oramond +26%Oramond · 7 maps
OverpassJohnny Speeds pick
57%50%
Johnny Speeds · 3 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +7%Oramond · 2 maps
AncientOramond ban
57%60%
Johnny Speeds · 3 mapsnearly even -3%Oramond · 1 map
InfernoOramond ban
71%60%
Johnny Speeds · 3 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +11%Oramond · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
60%50%
Johnny Speeds · 1 mapedge Johnny Speeds +10%Oramond · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJohnny Speeds remove Anubis
2. BanOramond remove Inferno
3. PickJohnny Speeds take Overpass
4. PickOramond take Mirage
5. BanOramond remove Ancient
6. BanJohnny Speeds remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct5:13
Johnny Speeds 25%Oramond 75%
The model gave 75% on Oramond — the map was taken by Oramond.
Infernoprediction correct13:5
Johnny Speeds 65%Oramond 35%
The model gave 65% on Johnny Speeds — the map was taken by Johnny Speeds.
Dust2prediction missed4:13
Johnny Speeds 60%Oramond 40%
The model gave 60% on Johnny Speeds — the map was taken by Oramond.
Model check result
Model favoriteJohnny Speeds · 57%
Series resultOramond 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3