Stake Ranked Episode 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
HEROIC#26 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
9z#17 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageHEROIC pick
25%43%
HEROIC · 4 mapsedge 9z +18%9z · 3 maps
Dust29z ban
67%50%
HEROIC · 2 mapsedge HEROIC +17%9z · 4 maps
Inferno9z ban
29%43%
HEROIC · 3 mapsedge 9z +14%9z · 3 maps
Nuke9z pick
50%63%
HEROIC · 2 mapsedge 9z +13%9z · 4 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%63%
HEROIC · 0 mapsedge 9z +13%9z · 4 maps
OverpassHEROIC ban
50%67%
HEROIC · 0 mapsedge 9z +17%9z · 2 maps
AnubisHEROIC ban
50%40%
HEROIC · 0 mapsedge HEROIC +10%9z · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHEROIC remove Anubis
2. Ban9z remove Dust2
3. PickHEROIC take Mirage
4. Pick9z take Nuke
5. Ban9z remove Inferno
6. BanHEROIC remove Overpass
DeciderAncient (50% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct14:16
HEROIC 38%9z 62%
The model gave 62% on 9z — the map was taken by 9z.
Overpassprediction missed16:12
HEROIC 31%9z 69%
The model gave 69% on 9z — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
HEROIC 67%9z 33%
The model gave 67% on HEROIC — the map was taken by 9z.
Model check result
Model favorite9z · 54%
Series result9z 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3