WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · win 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
K27#44 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
55%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 7 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +5%K27 · 4 maps
Dust2Nuclear TigeRES ban
42%40%
Nuclear TigeRES · 8 mapsnearly even +2%K27 · 1 map
NukeK27 ban
50%43%
Nuclear TigeRES · 6 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +7%K27 · 3 maps
AnubisNuclear TigeRES pick
64%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 7 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +14%K27 · 0 maps
MirageK27 pick
71%43%
Nuclear TigeRES · 3 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +28%K27 · 3 maps
OverpassNuclear TigeRES ban
50%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 0 mapsnearly even +0%K27 · 4 maps
InfernoK27 ban
67%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 2 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +17%K27 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Overpass
2. BanK27 remove Inferno
3. PickNuclear TigeRES take Anubis
4. PickK27 take Mirage
5. BanK27 remove Nuke
6. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (55% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:8
Nuclear TigeRES 66%K27 34%
The model gave 66% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Nukeprediction correct13:9
Nuclear TigeRES 54%K27 46%
The model gave 54% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteK27 · 52%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2