BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
illwillloss 1:2series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 1:2
fnatic#36 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
43%58%
illwill · 3 mapsedge fnatic +15%fnatic · 8 maps
Anubisillwill ban
50%42%
illwill · 0 mapsedge illwill +8%fnatic · 8 maps
Dust2illwill pick
50%44%
illwill · 2 mapsedge illwill +6%fnatic · 5 maps
Infernofnatic pick
50%73%
illwill · 0 mapsedge fnatic +23%fnatic · 7 maps
Ancientfnatic ban
50%57%
illwill · 2 mapsedge fnatic +7%fnatic · 3 maps
Nukefnatic ban
40%50%
illwill · 1 mapedge fnatic +10%fnatic · 0 maps
Overpassillwill ban
50%40%
illwill · 0 mapsedge illwill +10%fnatic · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banillwill remove Overpass
2. Banfnatic remove Nuke
3. Pickillwill take Dust2
4. Pickfnatic take Inferno
5. Banfnatic remove Ancient
6. Banillwill remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (43% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct4:13
illwill 40%fnatic 60%
The model gave 60% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Dust2prediction correct16:12
illwill 58%fnatic 42%
The model gave 58% on illwill — the map was taken by illwill.
Anubisprediction missed5:13
illwill 58%fnatic 42%
The model gave 58% on illwill — the map was taken by fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoritefnatic · 84%
Series resultfnatic 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3