WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
K27#44 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Virtus.pro#50 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientVirtus.pro pick
43%67%
K27 · 3 mapsedge Virtus.pro +24%Virtus.pro · 2 maps
NukeVirtus.pro ban
43%60%
K27 · 3 mapsedge Virtus.pro +17%Virtus.pro · 1 map
OverpassK27 pick
57%60%
K27 · 3 mapsnearly even -3%Virtus.pro · 1 map
MirageVirtus.pro ban
50%60%
K27 · 2 mapsedge Virtus.pro +10%Virtus.pro · 1 map
Dust2K27 ban
40%60%
K27 · 1 mapedge Virtus.pro +20%Virtus.pro · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanK27 remove Dust2
2. BanVirtus.pro remove Nuke
3. PickK27 take Overpass
4. PickVirtus.pro take Ancient
5. BanVirtus.pro remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:6
K27 25%Virtus.pro 75%
The model gave 75% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by K27.
Mirageprediction correct8:13
K27 43%Virtus.pro 57%
The model gave 57% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Overpassprediction correct7:13
K27 47%Virtus.pro 53%
The model gave 53% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Model check result
Model favoriteK27 · 82%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3