Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Omega#148 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-RUBY pick
65%67%
ex-RUBY · 13 mapsnearly even -2%Omega · 5 maps
Ancientex-RUBY ban
46%63%
ex-RUBY · 9 mapsedge Omega +17%Omega · 4 maps
NukeOmega ban
85%50%
ex-RUBY · 9 mapsedge ex-RUBY +35%Omega · 4 maps
MirageOmega pick
50%50%
ex-RUBY · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Omega · 4 maps
OverpassOmega ban
55%29%
ex-RUBY · 7 mapsedge ex-RUBY +26%Omega · 3 maps
Anubisex-RUBY ban
60%50%
ex-RUBY · 1 mapedge ex-RUBY +10%Omega · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUBY remove Anubis
2. BanOmega remove Nuke
3. Pickex-RUBY take Dust2
4. PickOmega take Mirage
5. BanOmega remove Overpass
6. Banex-RUBY remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:5
ex-RUBY 86%Omega 14%
The model gave 86% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
ex-RUBY 45%Omega 55%
The model gave 55% on Omega — the map was taken by Omega.
Ancientprediction correct10:13
ex-RUBY 34%Omega 66%
The model gave 66% on Omega — the map was taken by Omega.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUBY · 66%
Series resultOmega 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3