NODWIN Clutch Series 9 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
aAa#132 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
UNiTY#102 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2aAa pick
30%42%
aAa · 6 mapsedge UNiTY +12%UNiTY · 8 maps
AncientaAa ban
25%38%
aAa · 4 mapsedge UNiTY +13%UNiTY · 9 maps
MirageaAa ban
50%50%
aAa · 0 mapsnearly even +0%UNiTY · 8 maps
Anubispossible decider
60%38%
aAa · 1 mapedge aAa +22%UNiTY · 4 maps
InfernoUNiTY pick
33%67%
aAa · 2 mapsedge UNiTY +34%UNiTY · 2 maps
NukeUNiTY ban
29%50%
aAa · 3 mapsedge UNiTY +21%UNiTY · 0 maps
OverpassUNiTY ban
33%50%
aAa · 2 mapsedge UNiTY +17%UNiTY · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanaAa remove Mirage
2. BanUNiTY remove Nuke
3. PickaAa take Dust2
4. PickUNiTY take Inferno
5. BanUNiTY remove Overpass
6. BanaAa remove Ancient
DeciderAnubis (60% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct6:13
aAa 32%UNiTY 68%
The model gave 68% on UNiTY — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Dust2prediction correct16:19
aAa 40%UNiTY 60%
The model gave 60% on UNiTY — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Model check result
Model favoriteUNiTY · 56%
Series resultUNiTY 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2