WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
ARCRED#121 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNuclear TigeRES pick
55%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 7 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +5%ARCRED · 2 maps
AnubisARCRED pick
64%67%
Nuclear TigeRES · 7 mapsnearly even -3%ARCRED · 2 maps
Dust2Nuclear TigeRES ban
45%67%
Nuclear TigeRES · 7 mapsedge ARCRED +22%ARCRED · 2 maps
NukeARCRED ban
56%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 5 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +6%ARCRED · 0 maps
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
71%60%
Nuclear TigeRES · 3 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +11%ARCRED · 1 map
InfernoARCRED ban
67%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 2 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +17%ARCRED · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Dust2
2. BanARCRED remove Nuke
3. PickNuclear TigeRES take Ancient
4. PickARCRED take Anubis
5. BanARCRED remove Inferno
6. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
Nuclear TigeRES 27%ARCRED 73%
The model gave 73% on ARCRED — the map was taken by ARCRED.
Nukeprediction missed10:13
Nuclear TigeRES 58%ARCRED 42%
The model gave 58% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by ARCRED.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 64%
Series resultARCRED 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2