ESL Challenger League Season 51 Europe Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
TDK#86 in the world · win 2:1series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga#22 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageTDK ban
44%55%
TDK · 5 mapsedge Nemiga +11%Nemiga · 7 maps
OverpassTDK pick
67%82%
TDK · 5 mapsedge Nemiga +15%Nemiga · 7 maps
AncientNemiga pick
50%64%
TDK · 4 mapsedge Nemiga +14%Nemiga · 7 maps
Dust2Nemiga ban
70%63%
TDK · 6 mapsedge TDK +7%Nemiga · 4 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%56%
TDK · 2 mapsedge Nemiga +6%Nemiga · 5 maps
NukeTDK ban
50%56%
TDK · 0 mapsedge Nemiga +6%Nemiga · 5 maps
InfernoNemiga ban
33%50%
TDK · 2 mapsedge Nemiga +17%Nemiga · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTDK remove Nuke
2. BanNemiga remove Inferno
3. PickTDK take Overpass
4. PickNemiga take Ancient
5. BanNemiga remove Dust2
6. BanTDK remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (50% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:5
TDK 61%Nemiga 39%
The model gave 61% on TDK — the map was taken by TDK.
Ancientprediction correct10:13
TDK 34%Nemiga 66%
The model gave 66% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Overpassprediction missed13:5
TDK 31%Nemiga 69%
The model gave 69% on Nemiga — the map was taken by TDK.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga · 66%
Series resultTDK 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3