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Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC#147 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ex-Zero Tenacity#56 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeTNC pick
60%62%
TNC · 11 mapsnearly even -2%ex-Zero Tenacity · 9 maps
Miragepossible decider
57%40%
TNC · 10 mapsedge TNC +17%ex-Zero Tenacity · 6 maps
Dust2ex-Zero Tenacity pick
33%64%
TNC · 5 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +31%ex-Zero Tenacity · 10 maps
Anubisex-Zero Tenacity ban
64%36%
TNC · 7 mapsedge TNC +28%ex-Zero Tenacity · 7 maps
Ancientex-Zero Tenacity ban
50%50%
TNC · 10 mapsnearly even +0%ex-Zero Tenacity · 0 maps
InfernoTNC ban
50%45%
TNC · 0 mapsedge TNC +5%ex-Zero Tenacity · 7 maps
OverpassTNC ban
38%40%
TNC · 4 mapsnearly even -2%ex-Zero Tenacity · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTNC remove Inferno
2. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Ancient
3. PickTNC take Nuke
4. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Dust2
5. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Anubis
6. BanTNC remove Overpass
DeciderMirage (57% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
TNC 69%ex-Zero Tenacity 31%
The model gave 69% on TNC — the map was taken by TNC.
Dust2prediction correct7:13
TNC 20%ex-Zero Tenacity 80%
The model gave 80% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Nukeprediction missed13:2
TNC 48%ex-Zero Tenacity 52%
The model gave 52% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by TNC.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-Zero Tenacity · 62%
Series resultTNC 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3