ESL Challenger League Season 51 Asia-Pacific Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
SemperFi#67 in the world · win 2:0series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:0
THUNDER dOWNUNDER#128 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisSemperFi ban
50%75%
SemperFi · 0 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +25%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 8 maps
InfernoSemperFi pick
43%63%
SemperFi · 3 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +20%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 4 maps
Dust2SemperFi ban
50%56%
SemperFi · 0 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +6%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 5 maps
NukeTHUNDER dOWNUNDER pick
40%63%
SemperFi · 1 mapedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +23%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 4 maps
Ancientpossible decider
40%50%
SemperFi · 1 mapedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +10%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 2 maps
MirageTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
50%50%
SemperFi · 2 mapsnearly even +0%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 0 maps
OverpassTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
50%40%
SemperFi · 0 mapsedge SemperFi +10%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSemperFi remove Anubis
2. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Mirage
3. PickSemperFi take Inferno
4. PickTHUNDER dOWNUNDER take Nuke
5. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Overpass
6. BanSemperFi remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:9
SemperFi 47%THUNDER dOWNUNDER 53%
The model gave 53% on THUNDER dOWNUNDER — the map was taken by SemperFi.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
SemperFi 26%THUNDER dOWNUNDER 74%
The model gave 74% on THUNDER dOWNUNDER — the map was taken by SemperFi.
Model check result
Model favoriteTHUNDER dOWNUNDER · 69%
Series resultSemperFi 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2