WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
ARCRED#121 in the world · win 2:1series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
CYBERSHOKE#90 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientARCRED ban
60%58%
ARCRED · 1 mapnearly even +2%CYBERSHOKE · 8 maps
MirageCYBERSHOKE ban
60%50%
ARCRED · 1 mapedge ARCRED +10%CYBERSHOKE · 8 maps
Dust2CYBERSHOKE pick
60%64%
ARCRED · 1 mapnearly even -4%CYBERSHOKE · 7 maps
OverpassCYBERSHOKE ban
50%29%
ARCRED · 0 mapsedge ARCRED +21%CYBERSHOKE · 3 maps
AnubisARCRED pick
60%50%
ARCRED · 1 mapedge ARCRED +10%CYBERSHOKE · 0 maps
NukeARCRED ban
50%60%
ARCRED · 0 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +10%CYBERSHOKE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanARCRED remove Nuke
2. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Overpass
3. PickARCRED take Anubis
4. PickCYBERSHOKE take Dust2
5. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Mirage
6. BanARCRED remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
ARCRED 49%CYBERSHOKE 51%
The model gave 51% on CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Anubisprediction correct13:10
ARCRED 63%CYBERSHOKE 37%
The model gave 63% on ARCRED — the map was taken by ARCRED.
Dust2prediction missed13:3
ARCRED 46%CYBERSHOKE 54%
The model gave 54% on CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by ARCRED.
Model check result
Model favoriteCYBERSHOKE · 57%
Series resultARCRED 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3