Stake Ranked Episode 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
3DMAX#20 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
magic#18 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Mirage3DMAX ban
50%62%
3DMAX · 0 mapsedge magic +12%magic · 9 maps
Dust2magic ban
50%44%
3DMAX · 0 mapsedge 3DMAX +6%magic · 5 maps
Infernomagic pick
50%56%
3DMAX · 0 mapsedge magic +6%magic · 5 maps
Ancientmagic ban
50%43%
3DMAX · 0 mapsedge 3DMAX +7%magic · 3 maps
Overpass3DMAX pick
50%67%
3DMAX · 0 mapsedge magic +17%magic · 2 maps
Anubis3DMAX ban
40%50%
3DMAX · 1 mapedge magic +10%magic · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban3DMAX remove Mirage
2. Banmagic remove Dust2
3. Pick3DMAX take Overpass
4. Pickmagic take Inferno
5. Banmagic remove Ancient
6. Ban3DMAX remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed9:13
3DMAX 54%magic 46%
The model gave 54% on 3DMAX — the map was taken by magic.
Infernoprediction correct15:19
3DMAX 47%magic 53%
The model gave 53% on magic — the map was taken by magic.
Model check result
Model favorite3DMAX · 53%
Series resultmagic 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2