WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
BET-M#65 in the world · win 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aurora Young Blud#212 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAurora Young Blud pick
33%43%
BET-M · 5 mapsedge Aurora Young Blud +10%Aurora Young Blud · 3 maps
MirageBET-M pick
56%40%
BET-M · 5 mapsedge BET-M +16%Aurora Young Blud · 1 map
Nukepossible decider
50%40%
BET-M · 4 mapsedge BET-M +10%Aurora Young Blud · 1 map
Dust2Aurora Young Blud ban
50%33%
BET-M · 2 mapsedge BET-M +17%Aurora Young Blud · 2 maps
InfernoAurora Young Blud ban
38%50%
BET-M · 4 mapsedge Aurora Young Blud +12%Aurora Young Blud · 0 maps
OverpassBET-M ban
50%33%
BET-M · 0 mapsedge BET-M +17%Aurora Young Blud · 2 maps
AnubisBET-M ban
50%60%
BET-M · 0 mapsedge Aurora Young Blud +10%Aurora Young Blud · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBET-M remove Overpass
2. BanAurora Young Blud remove Inferno
3. PickBET-M take Mirage
4. PickAurora Young Blud take Ancient
5. BanAurora Young Blud remove Dust2
6. BanBET-M remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:6
BET-M 37%Aurora Young Blud 63%
The model gave 63% on Aurora Young Blud — the map was taken by BET-M.
Nukeprediction correct13:4
BET-M 63%Aurora Young Blud 37%
The model gave 63% on BET-M — the map was taken by BET-M.
Model check result
Model favoriteBET-M · 73%
Series resultBET-M 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2