CCT 2026 Challengers Europe Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vexar#141 in the world · win 2:1series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Lilmix#204 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageVexar pick
50%40%
Vexar · 0 mapsedge Vexar +10%Lilmix · 11 maps
Dust2Lilmix ban
50%25%
Vexar · 0 mapsedge Vexar +25%Lilmix · 8 maps
AncientLilmix ban
50%45%
Vexar · 0 mapsedge Vexar +5%Lilmix · 7 maps
OverpassVexar ban
50%60%
Vexar · 0 mapsedge Lilmix +10%Lilmix · 6 maps
InfernoLilmix pick
50%75%
Vexar · 0 mapsedge Lilmix +25%Lilmix · 4 maps
DefaultVexar ban
40%33%
Vexar · 1 mapedge Vexar +7%Lilmix · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVexar remove Overpass
2. BanLilmix remove Dust2
3. PickVexar take Mirage
4. PickLilmix take Inferno
5. BanLilmix remove Ancient
6. BanVexar remove Default
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct7:13
Vexar 23%Lilmix 77%
The model gave 77% on Lilmix — the map was taken by Lilmix.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
Vexar 77%Lilmix 23%
The model gave 77% on Vexar — the map was taken by Vexar.
Ancientprediction correct13:6
Vexar 55%Lilmix 45%
The model gave 55% on Vexar — the map was taken by Vexar.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilmix · 58%
Series resultVexar 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3