NODWIN Clutch Series 13 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeMOUZ NXT pick
50%59%
Gothic · 0 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +9%MOUZ NXT · 23 maps
Dust2MOUZ NXT ban
40%24%
Gothic · 1 mapedge Gothic +16%MOUZ NXT · 17 maps
MirageMOUZ NXT ban
33%26%
Gothic · 2 mapsedge Gothic +7%MOUZ NXT · 15 maps
CacheGothic pick
50%47%
Gothic · 0 mapsnearly even +3%MOUZ NXT · 15 maps
Ancientpossible decider
60%69%
Gothic · 1 mapedge MOUZ NXT +9%MOUZ NXT · 9 maps
AnubisGothic ban
40%44%
Gothic · 1 mapnearly even -4%MOUZ NXT · 5 maps
DefaultGothic ban
50%71%
Gothic · 0 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +21%MOUZ NXT · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGothic remove Anubis
2. BanMOUZ NXT remove Dust2
3. PickGothic take Cache
4. PickMOUZ NXT take Nuke
5. BanMOUZ NXT remove Mirage
6. BanGothic remove Default
DeciderAncient (60% / 69%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:10
Gothic 48%MOUZ NXT 52%
The model gave 52% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by Gothic.
Ancientprediction missed13:5
Gothic 37%MOUZ NXT 63%
The model gave 63% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by Gothic.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ NXT · 59%
Series resultGothic 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2