NODWIN Clutch Series 13 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilmix#204 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Fire Flux#103 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisFire Flux pick
43%67%
Lilmix · 3 mapsedge Fire Flux +24%Fire Flux · 17 maps
Dust2Lilmix ban
40%55%
Lilmix · 1 mapedge Fire Flux +15%Fire Flux · 18 maps
MirageFire Flux ban
33%53%
Lilmix · 5 mapsedge Fire Flux +20%Fire Flux · 13 maps
CacheLilmix ban
43%59%
Lilmix · 3 mapsedge Fire Flux +16%Fire Flux · 13 maps
Infernopossible decider
33%67%
Lilmix · 2 mapsedge Fire Flux +34%Fire Flux · 11 maps
NukeLilmix pick
50%47%
Lilmix · 0 mapsnearly even +3%Fire Flux · 11 maps
AncientFire Flux ban
30%25%
Lilmix · 6 mapsedge Lilmix +5%Fire Flux · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLilmix remove Dust2
2. BanFire Flux remove Ancient
3. PickLilmix take Nuke
4. PickFire Flux take Anubis
5. BanFire Flux remove Mirage
6. BanLilmix remove Cache
DeciderInferno (33% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
Lilmix 33%Fire Flux 67%
The model gave 67% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Mirageprediction correct1:13
Lilmix 33%Fire Flux 67%
The model gave 67% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Model check result
Model favoriteFire Flux · 66%
Series resultFire Flux 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2