NODWIN Clutch Series 13 · BO3
result vs prediction
GenOne#121 in the world · win 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Butterfly#132 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2GenOne pick
60%67%
GenOne · 31 mapedge Butterfly +7%Butterfly · 17 maps
NukeButterfly pick
42%58%
GenOne · 15 mapsedge Butterfly +16%Butterfly · 20 maps
Ancientpossible decider
63%61%
GenOne · 20 mapsnearly even +2%Butterfly · 14 maps
InfernoButterfly ban
58%20%
GenOne · 15 mapsedge GenOne +38%Butterfly · 16 maps
MirageGenOne ban
50%65%
GenOne · 0 mapsedge Butterfly +15%Butterfly · 13 maps
AnubisButterfly ban
80%40%
GenOne · 11 mapsedge GenOne +40%Butterfly · 1 map
CacheGenOne ban
36%63%
GenOne · 7 mapsedge Butterfly +27%Butterfly · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGenOne remove Mirage
2. BanButterfly remove Anubis
3. PickGenOne take Dust2
4. PickButterfly take Nuke
5. BanButterfly remove Inferno
6. BanGenOne remove Cache
DeciderAncient (63% / 61%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:1
GenOne 32%Butterfly 68%
The model gave 68% on Butterfly — the map was taken by GenOne.
Infernoprediction correct13:5
GenOne 86%Butterfly 14%
The model gave 86% on GenOne — the map was taken by GenOne.
Model check result
Model favoriteButterfly · 52%
Series resultGenOne 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2