NODWIN Clutch Series 13 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Bushido Wildcats#113 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Bushido Wildcats pick
66%65%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 25 mapsnearly even +1%Bushido Wildcats · 51 map
Mirageex-Zero Tenacity ban
50%52%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 16 mapsnearly even -2%Bushido Wildcats · 40 maps
Cacheex-Zero Tenacity pick
74%54%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 30 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +20%Bushido Wildcats · 20 maps
Nukepossible decider
56%55%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 21 mapnearly even +1%Bushido Wildcats · 29 maps
InfernoBushido Wildcats ban
64%53%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 18 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +11%Bushido Wildcats · 15 maps
AnubisBushido Wildcats ban
62%39%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 9 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +23%Bushido Wildcats · 14 maps
Defaultex-Zero Tenacity ban
57%79%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 10 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +22%Bushido Wildcats · 10 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Mirage
2. BanBushido Wildcats remove Anubis
3. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Cache
4. PickBushido Wildcats take Dust2
5. BanBushido Wildcats remove Inferno
6. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Default
DeciderNuke (56% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
ex-Zero Tenacity 45%Bushido Wildcats 55%
The model gave 55% on Bushido Wildcats — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Infernoprediction correct13:1
ex-Zero Tenacity 64%Bushido Wildcats 36%
The model gave 64% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-Zero Tenacity · 67%
Series resultex-Zero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2