NODWIN Clutch Series 13 · BO3
result vs prediction
BRUTE#89 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
FOKUS#52 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2FOKUS ban
58%35%
BRUTE · 15 mapsedge BRUTE +23%FOKUS · 13 maps
Nukepossible decider
64%71%
BRUTE · 10 mapsedge FOKUS +7%FOKUS · 17 maps
CacheFOKUS pick
69%80%
BRUTE · 9 mapsedge FOKUS +11%FOKUS · 16 maps
MirageBRUTE pick
60%38%
BRUTE · 16 mapsedge BRUTE +22%FOKUS · 9 maps
AnubisBRUTE ban
44%50%
BRUTE · 14 mapsedge FOKUS +6%FOKUS · 6 maps
AncientBRUTE ban
33%65%
BRUTE · 2 mapsedge FOKUS +32%FOKUS · 13 maps
InfernoFOKUS ban
67%38%
BRUTE · 8 mapsedge BRUTE +29%FOKUS · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBRUTE remove Ancient
2. BanFOKUS remove Inferno
3. PickBRUTE take Mirage
4. PickFOKUS take Cache
5. BanFOKUS remove Dust2
6. BanBRUTE remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (64% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:11
BRUTE 33%FOKUS 67%
The model gave 67% on FOKUS — the map was taken by BRUTE.
Mirageprediction missed23:25
BRUTE 73%FOKUS 27%
The model gave 73% on BRUTE — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Nukeprediction correct10:13
BRUTE 42%FOKUS 58%
The model gave 58% on FOKUS — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Model check result
Model favoriteFOKUS · 62%
Series resultFOKUS 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3