Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
fnatic#36 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisFKOMAR pick
50%53%
FKOMAR · 0 mapsnearly even -3%fnatic · 15 maps
Dust2fnatic ban
50%53%
FKOMAR · 0 mapsnearly even -3%fnatic · 13 maps
Ancientfnatic pick
50%64%
FKOMAR · 0 mapsedge fnatic +14%fnatic · 10 maps
MirageFKOMAR ban
50%69%
FKOMAR · 0 mapsedge fnatic +19%fnatic · 9 maps
InfernoFKOMAR ban
50%80%
FKOMAR · 0 mapsedge fnatic +30%fnatic · 6 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%67%
FKOMAR · 0 mapsedge fnatic +17%fnatic · 5 maps
Overpassfnatic ban
50%33%
FKOMAR · 0 mapsedge FKOMAR +17%fnatic · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFKOMAR remove Inferno
2. Banfnatic remove Overpass
3. PickFKOMAR take Anubis
4. Pickfnatic take Ancient
5. Banfnatic remove Dust2
6. BanFKOMAR remove Mirage
DeciderCache (50% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct5:13
FKOMAR 39%fnatic 61%
The model gave 61% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Cacheprediction correct3:13
FKOMAR 31%fnatic 69%
The model gave 69% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoritefnatic · 81%
Series resultfnatic 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2