Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
BIG#27 in the world · win 2:0series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientz to forward ban
60%50%
BIG · 6 mapsedge BIG +10%z to forward · 0 maps
Miragez to forward pick
30%50%
BIG · 6 mapsedge z to forward +20%z to forward · 0 maps
InfernoBIG pick
56%50%
BIG · 5 mapsedge BIG +6%z to forward · 0 maps
NukeBIG ban
43%50%
BIG · 3 mapsedge z to forward +7%z to forward · 0 maps
Overpasspossible decider
43%50%
BIG · 3 mapsedge z to forward +7%z to forward · 0 maps
Dust2BIG ban
50%50%
BIG · 2 mapsnearly even +0%z to forward · 0 maps
Anubisz to forward ban
60%50%
BIG · 1 mapedge BIG +10%z to forward · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBIG remove Nuke
2. Banz to forward remove Ancient
3. PickBIG take Inferno
4. Pickz to forward take Mirage
5. Banz to forward remove Anubis
6. BanBIG remove Dust2
DeciderOverpass (43% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:1
BIG 40%z to forward 60%
The model gave 60% on z to forward — the map was taken by BIG.
Ancientprediction correct13:1
BIG 63%z to forward 37%
The model gave 63% on BIG — the map was taken by BIG.
Model check result
Model favoriteBIG · 88%
Series resultBIG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2