Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
ASTRAL#97 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientKreazion ban
50%70%
Kreazion · 0 mapsedge ASTRAL +20%ASTRAL · 19 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%47%
Kreazion · 0 mapsnearly even +3%ASTRAL · 11 maps
AnubisASTRAL pick
50%57%
Kreazion · 0 mapsedge ASTRAL +7%ASTRAL · 10 maps
NukeASTRAL ban
50%36%
Kreazion · 0 mapsedge Kreazion +14%ASTRAL · 10 maps
MirageKreazion pick
50%46%
Kreazion · 0 mapsnearly even +4%ASTRAL · 9 maps
InfernoASTRAL ban
50%55%
Kreazion · 0 mapsedge ASTRAL +5%ASTRAL · 7 maps
DefaultKreazion ban
50%60%
Kreazion · 0 mapsedge ASTRAL +10%ASTRAL · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKreazion remove Ancient
2. BanASTRAL remove Nuke
3. PickKreazion take Mirage
4. PickASTRAL take Anubis
5. BanASTRAL remove Inferno
6. BanKreazion remove Default
DeciderDust2 (50% / 47%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed3:13
Kreazion 56%ASTRAL 44%
The model gave 56% on Kreazion — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Ancientprediction correct1:13
Kreazion 28%ASTRAL 72%
The model gave 72% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Model check result
Model favoriteASTRAL · 77%
Series resultASTRAL 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2