European Pro League Series 7 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
ENCE#112 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
CYBERSHOKE Prospects#140 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
60%50%
ENCE · 1 mapedge ENCE +10%CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 8 maps
InfernoCYBERSHOKE Prospects pick
40%60%
ENCE · 1 mapedge CYBERSHOKE Prospects +20%CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 6 maps
NukeCYBERSHOKE Prospects ban
50%44%
ENCE · 0 mapsedge ENCE +6%CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 5 maps
MirageENCE pick
60%43%
ENCE · 1 mapedge ENCE +17%CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 3 maps
AncientENCE ban
50%71%
ENCE · 0 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE Prospects +21%CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 3 maps
AnubisCYBERSHOKE Prospects ban
50%57%
ENCE · 0 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE Prospects +7%CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 3 maps
DefaultENCE ban
50%60%
ENCE · 0 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE Prospects +10%CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanENCE remove Ancient
2. BanCYBERSHOKE Prospects remove Nuke
3. PickENCE take Mirage
4. PickCYBERSHOKE Prospects take Inferno
5. BanCYBERSHOKE Prospects remove Anubis
6. BanENCE remove Default
DeciderDust2 (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct7:13
ENCE 28%CYBERSHOKE Prospects 72%
The model gave 72% on CYBERSHOKE Prospects — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE Prospects.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
ENCE 58%CYBERSHOKE Prospects 42%
The model gave 58% on ENCE — the map was taken by ENCE.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
ENCE 29%CYBERSHOKE Prospects 71%
The model gave 71% on CYBERSHOKE Prospects — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE Prospects.
Model check result
Model favoriteCYBERSHOKE Prospects · 63%
Series resultCYBERSHOKE Prospects 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3