WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tricksters#199 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2PsychoFace pick
50%55%
Tricksters · 0 mapsedge PsychoFace +5%PsychoFace · 7 maps
AnubisPsychoFace ban
50%50%
Tricksters · 0 mapsnearly even +0%PsychoFace · 4 maps
MiragePsychoFace ban
50%38%
Tricksters · 0 mapsedge Tricksters +12%PsychoFace · 4 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%38%
Tricksters · 0 mapsedge Tricksters +12%PsychoFace · 4 maps
OverpassTricksters ban
50%63%
Tricksters · 0 mapsedge PsychoFace +13%PsychoFace · 4 maps
AncientTricksters pick
50%33%
Tricksters · 0 mapsedge Tricksters +17%PsychoFace · 2 maps
DefaultTricksters ban
50%50%
Tricksters · 0 mapsnearly even +0%PsychoFace · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTricksters remove Overpass
2. BanPsychoFace remove Anubis
3. PickTricksters take Ancient
4. PickPsychoFace take Dust2
5. BanPsychoFace remove Mirage
6. BanTricksters remove Default
DeciderNuke (50% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:16
Tricksters 48%PsychoFace 52%
The model gave 52% on PsychoFace — the map was taken by PsychoFace.
Nukeprediction missed6:13
Tricksters 60%PsychoFace 40%
The model gave 60% on Tricksters — the map was taken by PsychoFace.
Model check result
Model favoritePsychoFace · 72%
Series resultPsychoFace 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2