NODWIN Clutch Series 9 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
G2 Ares#103 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Lilmix#204 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
55%40%
G2 Ares · 7 mapsedge G2 Ares +15%Lilmix · 11 maps
Dust2Lilmix ban
63%18%
G2 Ares · 4 mapsedge G2 Ares +45%Lilmix · 7 maps
AncientG2 Ares ban
50%45%
G2 Ares · 2 mapsedge G2 Ares +5%Lilmix · 7 maps
OverpassLilmix pick
50%60%
G2 Ares · 2 mapsedge Lilmix +10%Lilmix · 6 maps
InfernoG2 Ares ban
63%71%
G2 Ares · 4 mapsedge Lilmix +8%Lilmix · 3 maps
DefaultG2 Ares pick
50%33%
G2 Ares · 0 mapsedge G2 Ares +17%Lilmix · 2 maps
AnubisLilmix ban
60%50%
G2 Ares · 1 mapedge G2 Ares +10%Lilmix · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanG2 Ares remove Ancient
2. BanLilmix remove Dust2
3. PickG2 Ares take Default
4. PickLilmix take Overpass
5. BanLilmix remove Anubis
6. BanG2 Ares remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (55% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct5:13
G2 Ares 37%Lilmix 63%
The model gave 63% on Lilmix — the map was taken by Lilmix.
Dust2prediction missed13:16
G2 Ares 89%Lilmix 11%
The model gave 89% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by Lilmix.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Ares · 70%
Series resultLilmix 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2