WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Oxuji#173 in the world · win 2:0series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SPARTA#96 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SPARTA pick
47%58%
Oxuji · 11 mapsedge SPARTA +11%SPARTA · 15 maps
NukeOxuji pick
73%50%
Oxuji · 11 mapsedge Oxuji +23%SPARTA · 8 maps
AncientSPARTA ban
60%33%
Oxuji · 6 mapsedge Oxuji +27%SPARTA · 8 maps
MirageSPARTA ban
67%33%
Oxuji · 5 mapsedge Oxuji +34%SPARTA · 8 maps
InfernoOxuji ban
27%44%
Oxuji · 7 mapsedge SPARTA +17%SPARTA · 5 maps
Defaultpossible decider
75%40%
Oxuji · 4 mapsedge Oxuji +35%SPARTA · 1 map
OverpassOxuji ban
50%56%
Oxuji · 0 mapsedge SPARTA +6%SPARTA · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOxuji remove Overpass
2. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
3. PickOxuji take Nuke
4. PickSPARTA take Dust2
5. BanSPARTA remove Mirage
6. BanOxuji remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (75% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:2
Oxuji 77%SPARTA 23%
The model gave 77% on Oxuji — the map was taken by Oxuji.
Infernoprediction missed13:5
Oxuji 29%SPARTA 71%
The model gave 71% on SPARTA — the map was taken by Oxuji.
Model check result
Model favoriteSPARTA · 66%
Series resultOxuji 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2