Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Oramond#119 in the world · win 1:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Rune Eaters#114 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageOramond pick
50%45%
Oramond · 4 mapsedge Oramond +5%Rune Eaters · 7 maps
Dust2Rune Eaters pick
50%63%
Oramond · 4 mapsedge Rune Eaters +13%Rune Eaters · 4 maps
AncientOramond ban
50%56%
Oramond · 0 mapsedge Rune Eaters +6%Rune Eaters · 5 maps
AnubisRune Eaters ban
57%50%
Oramond · 3 mapsedge Oramond +7%Rune Eaters · 0 maps
InfernoOramond ban
60%50%
Oramond · 1 mapedge Oramond +10%Rune Eaters · 2 maps
NukeRune Eaters ban
33%40%
Oramond · 2 mapsedge Rune Eaters +7%Rune Eaters · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
50%60%
Oramond · 0 mapsedge Rune Eaters +10%Rune Eaters · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOramond remove Ancient
2. BanRune Eaters remove Anubis
3. PickOramond take Mirage
4. PickRune Eaters take Dust2
5. BanRune Eaters remove Nuke
6. BanOramond remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed1:0
Oramond 40%Rune Eaters 60%
The model gave 60% on Rune Eaters — the map was taken by Oramond.
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 55%
Series resultOramond 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1