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European Pro League Series 7 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
DONSTU#221 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
brazylijski luz#146 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2brazylijski luz ban
43%50%
DONSTU · 3 mapsedge brazylijski luz +7%brazylijski luz · 2 maps
Infernobrazylijski luz ban
38%40%
DONSTU · 4 mapsnearly even -2%brazylijski luz · 1 map
Ancientbrazylijski luz pick
60%57%
DONSTU · 1 mapnearly even +3%brazylijski luz · 3 maps
AnubisDONSTU pick
50%50%
DONSTU · 4 mapsnearly even +0%brazylijski luz · 0 maps
DefaultDONSTU ban
50%67%
DONSTU · 0 mapsedge brazylijski luz +17%brazylijski luz · 2 maps
MirageDONSTU ban
50%33%
DONSTU · 0 mapsedge DONSTU +17%brazylijski luz · 2 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%60%
DONSTU · 0 mapsedge brazylijski luz +10%brazylijski luz · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDONSTU remove Mirage
2. Banbrazylijski luz remove Inferno
3. PickDONSTU take Anubis
4. Pickbrazylijski luz take Ancient
5. Banbrazylijski luz remove Dust2
6. BanDONSTU remove Default
DeciderNuke (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:4
DONSTU 50%brazylijski luz 50%
The model gave 50% on brazylijski luz — the map was taken by DONSTU.
Anubisprediction missed13:16
DONSTU 53%brazylijski luz 47%
The model gave 53% on DONSTU — the map was taken by brazylijski luz.
Dust2prediction correct2:13
DONSTU 43%brazylijski luz 57%
The model gave 57% on brazylijski luz — the map was taken by brazylijski luz.
Model check result
Model favoritebrazylijski luz · 53%
Series resultbrazylijski luz 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3