Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
ASTRAL#97 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
ALGO#146 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientASTRAL pick
68%44%
ASTRAL · 15 mapsedge ASTRAL +24%ALGO · 5 maps
InfernoASTRAL ban
33%64%
ASTRAL · 8 mapsedge ALGO +31%ALGO · 7 maps
MirageALGO ban
54%22%
ASTRAL · 9 mapsedge ASTRAL +32%ALGO · 5 maps
Anubispossible decider
71%38%
ASTRAL · 3 mapsedge ASTRAL +33%ALGO · 9 maps
NukeALGO pick
50%64%
ASTRAL · 4 mapsedge ALGO +14%ALGO · 7 maps
Dust2ALGO ban
46%50%
ASTRAL · 9 mapsnearly even -4%ALGO · 0 maps
OverpassASTRAL ban
50%43%
ASTRAL · 0 mapsedge ASTRAL +7%ALGO · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanASTRAL remove Overpass
2. BanALGO remove Mirage
3. PickASTRAL take Ancient
4. PickALGO take Nuke
5. BanALGO remove Dust2
6. BanASTRAL remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (71% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed6:13
ASTRAL 75%ALGO 25%
The model gave 75% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by ALGO.
Nukeprediction correct13:16
ASTRAL 34%ALGO 66%
The model gave 66% on ALGO — the map was taken by ALGO.
Model check result
Model favoriteASTRAL · 62%
Series resultALGO 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2